Dis-United Kingdom General Election campaign officially kicks off

They do seem to have had their fair share of fruitcakes.  

Today's thrilling poll forecast:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/09/numbers-are-clear-labour-narrowly-ahead/

The latest YouGov Nowcast has Labour at 277 seats and the Conservatives at 264

Today we publish a new update to the YouGov Nowcast, making use of the biggest single dataset available on the outcome of the election on May 7th. In total, it involves 163,564 different individuals, 19,117 of whom have been newly interviewed since the last published Nowcast before the weekend on April 4th, using a special two stage voting intention question that teases out local tactical voting.

It involves a sophisticated statistical model that combines the voters we have in each constituency with similar voters around the region in terms of demographics like age, gender, employment, ethnicity and of course past vote.

The latest results paint a clear and consistent picture of the current state of the election campaign. As of today, the SNP are poised to all but wipe out Labour in Scotland, picking up as many as 55 seats; the Liberal Democrats stand to retain around half their seats at 28, and the Conservatives remain just behind Labour, ahead in 264 seats compared to Labour's 277.



I am sure I am not alone in wishing it was all over and done with; short of something really exciting happening, like Cameron announcing he's been having an affair with Ms Bennett of the Greens, or even worse, Farage, I doubt if many minds are going to be changed over the next month.

Interesting poll on the hounders:



Astounding UKIP vote - who knew Bennett had as many socks as that?

He might have more.  

Oh, I spoke too soon. Someone has just Cameron:

http://news.sky.com/story/1461837/tory-dossier-urges-attacks-on-ed-miliband

Tory Dossier Urges Attacks On Ed Miliband
A document for Conservative candidates seen by Sky News contains 99 mentions of the Labour leader, but just 10 of David Cameron.

Conservative candidates have been instructed to put attacks on Ed Miliband at the heart of their campaigns in a briefing message seen by Sky News.

The message from Tory headquarters is to focus on the "chaos" of a Labour pact with the SNP in interviews and at hustings.

As the row over personal attacks on the Labour leader intensifies, the 88-page document suggest the Conservatives will focus on negative campaigning.

There are 99 references to Mr Miliband in the "Notes for Speakers" briefing and just 10 to Prime Minister David Cameron.

Conservative candidates are encouraged to tell the public that a vote for every other party is a vote for Mr Miliband.

The headlines of the document include: "Vote LibDem Get Miliband", "Vote UKIP Get Miliband", "Vote Green Get Miliband", "Vote Plaid Get Miliband", and "the SNP will prop up Ed Miliband".

It comes as the Defence Minister Michael Fallon was sharply criticised for making a personal attack on Mr Miliband.

Mr Fallon said Mr Miliband had "stabbed his own brother in the back" to become Labour leader and would be willing to "stab the United Kingdom in the back" to become Prime Minister.

Defending his comments on Sky News he said it was fair enough to point out that the Labour leader could not be trusted.

And he added he did not want Mr Miliband making a "grubby deal" with the SNP to put Labour in power that would see him trade in Britain’s nuclear deterrent - something the SNP want scrapped.

When challenged about the comments on the campaign trail, Mr Cameron said that the "personal is the national" when it comes to the person who becomes prime minister

Other Conservative figures have questioned the "negative" tone of the campaign but privately Conservative strategists point out that a negative message was successful in Scotland.

Some Conservatives believe that the public need to be reminded that Mr Miliband could be heading to Number 10.

Mr Miliband said Mr Fallon had "demeaned himself and his office" by making the comments and said he was used to the insults.

Speaking in London he said: “The Conservative party can throw what they like at me, they can make all the personal attacks on me that they want to but I have got used to it and you know what, I'm resilient.

"And I'm resilient for one reason and one reason alone - because I am fighting for the British people in this campaign.

"I'm fighting for the kind of country the British people want, which I think is a country that is different from now and works for them in a way that it does not work for them at the moment."

Mr Miliband spoke of how the Labour leadership contest had left his relationship with his brother "strained" during the Sky News/Channel 4 Battle For Number 10 Programme.

UKIP economic spokesman Patrick O'Flynn said Mr Fallon’s "meaningless" personal attacks should stop and added: "We think it is a bit odd that Michael Fallon should be trying to link defence of the realm to the way in which Ed Miliband became Labour Party leader."

The Conservatives have issued a number of attack adverts on YouTube and published unflattering pictures of Mr Miliband on the campaign Twitter feed.

Labour strategists say Mr Miliband’s poll ratings are going up.


I saw a bit of that idiot Fallon this morning; never mind Milliband, I really don't think using Trident nuclear missiles to attack ISIS and Boko Haram is really the brightest of ideas....

This is bad for the Tories; everyone knows they're doing it, but having instructions to do it isn't going to go down well.

The one thing I thought was crazy for Miliband to say he would do as PM was regarding the non doms.  

That would be a nice revenue stream he would be turning his back on by causing many to leave.

Oh, they all say silly things at election time, Lily. What they actually do is another matter entirely...

Thing about this is, that huge section of the public that doesn't actually pay much attention to politics is going to be pretty shocked that the Tories were ordered to launch personal attacks on Milliband, etc. Tories are usually capable of doing that without instructions..

I noticed this bit, too:

Conservative strategists point out that a negative message was successful in Scotland.

Pure gold, is that. To the SNP.

I wonder if Murdoch is finally going to get his own back for Leveson, etc?

Ah, thanks, Bonny.  

Funny you should say that about Leveson, Bonny, as I thought that Murdoch seemed not too pleased with Cameron to be doing that.   I wondered why and know I think I know.  

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 3h 3 hours ago
SNP widen the gap in Scotland according to YouGov/Times poll
SNP 49 +3
Lab 25 -4
Con 18 +2
LD 4 +1

It's worth remembering that, on top of issues arising from Scotland, Cameron has set another constitutional crisis in motion.

Previously, UK parliaments lasted four years, tops, but if a government fell, perhaps with a no-confidence vote, a general election could be held earlier - who can forget the joyous year we had TWO general elections?

But Cameron changed the rules so that Westminster has a fixed five-year term.

So what happens if it proves impossible for ANY coalition to govern now, I have no idea.

The Star seems to have abandoned any pretence of being a newspaper:

Is there something different about this campaign, or have I just lost track? It all seems to be about dirty tricks these days. Whatever happened to fair play?

First the attack on The SNP, and now they are tearing each other to pieces. It all sounds so very desperate.

The Tories in particular seem to have gone back to being the Nasty Party, UK-wide, Sabot. Remember, the likes of the Mail and Telegraph weren't paying any attention to us lesser beings in Scotland, and up till now had reserved the dirty tricks for UKIP.

We've had this for what feels like years now, it went on here all through the Referendum and it's actually making people angry - they aren't being taken in any longer.

I do hope folk south of the border catch on to their Imperial lords and masters.

Here's why the establishment parties are screwed here:



That's the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems celebrating together. The referendum ended with them giving each other high fives while ordinary Scots who just for once thought they had a chance for something better wept in the streets.

And then the Unionist stormtroopers rioted in George Square. And tried to burn down the Sunday Herald office for daring to support YES.

It's not going to be forgotten, not least because this time, it's all a matter of record on the internet.

Oh God, Millipede and Balls have surfaced in Edinburgh to tell us we're too wee, poor and stupid, in chorus with Murphy. I decided not to listen to ANYTHING involving Murphy, having had a two-day headache from his SHOUTING OVER EVERYONE ELSE in debates.

I had noticed that some people aren't being taken in any more, Bonny, but before The Scottish Referendum I hadn't really noticed the dirty tricks. And I don't think the politicians had noticed how fed up the electorate were getting until the expenses scandal broke.
Me? I got fed up with it all years ago, before I left UK, and that was twenty years at least. But mine has been a jaundiced eye for a very long time.
Before this Forum I didn't have anyone to discuss it with, and sort of thought that it wasn't really my business anymore, albeit laced with a smidgeon of guilt. Rats and sinking ships is how I could be described. I was brought up on the principle that if you cared about your country then you stayed and tried to mend it. But I can't see anything to mend.

France with all of it's passion for paperwork has been very good to me without me even having to ask. I am treated with respect wherever I go, and I have almost forgotten what fear felt like.

I genuinely think that the only way things will improve for England is some form of regional devolution, Sabot. This business of everything being sucked into the overheating M25 corridor is unbalancing the country, from what I can see.

Politicians disappear to Westminster and are never seen again, till they are dragged into some scandal or other. The establishment is decayed, IMO, not helped by the likes of Cameron clinging to the idea that there is still some kind of Imperial legacy that is of supreme importance in the world.

I doubt very much if the UK could hang onto the Falklands if Argentina invaded again, because Cameron has gutted the armed forces, despite the fact that an air force and navy are rather handy on islands...

Whilst clinging onto the useless, deadly, vanity project that is Trident. The imbecile Fallon from the MoD, he who smeared Milliband yesterday, really did rabbit on about Trident being needed because of ISIS, Boko Haram and other insurgents...

Eh?

In short, they are out of touch with reality?

Terrifyingly so, Lily. It's like this business of Cameron boasting about creating 'hundreds of thousands' of new jobs.

No, he hasn't. There are openings at Poundland, etc., for minimum wage jobs on zero hour contracts - the sort of work that used to be done by students, etc., for spare cash. They aren't 'jobs' that anyone can run a home on, which is most people's idea of a real 'job'.

I mentioned Cornwall some time ago, Bonny, and how very badly that County has always been treated. And Plymouth not much better. I have three sons living and working in that area, two of whom were born in Cornwall. And it's from there that I actually escaped.
But then I lived for a long time in Scotland as well. Top and bottom of The UK, and not much knowledge of anywhere in between. Apart from London where I had the misfortune to be born. But that hasn't been part of Britain for years.

I haven't been to London for years, Sabot, and have no desire to ever set foot in the place again - horrible, dirty, place. A few really nice, but unbelievably expensive areas, and the rest - yuck. The Tube was horrible, I am surprised it hasn't caused another outbreak of Black Death.

I suspect London's view of the rest of the British Isles hasn't changed one bit over the centuries - we only exist to be exploited. If we can be bought off, fine, if we get uppity, send in the dragoons.

bb1 wrote:Terrifyingly so, Lily. It's like this business of Cameron boasting about creating 'hundreds of thousands' of new jobs.

No, he hasn't. There are openings at Poundland, etc., for minimum wage jobs on zero hour contracts - the sort of work that used to be done by students, etc., for spare cash. They aren't 'jobs' that anyone can run a home on, which is most people's idea of a real 'job'.

You have your own version of our guy.  In fact, many more similarities are really scary.

Why on earth do people want to live there, Bonny? It is largely disgusting, although the Railway House I grew up in in Neasden with it's outside lavatory and no bathroom, is now very twee and expensive.
It was all very Labour in my young day. My father never forgave me for voting Tory. But then he never forgave me for living in Singapore, in the lap of luxury on the tax payer's money. Me, I wouldn't have missed that for the world.

They are indeed, Lily. I've learned all sorts of fascinating things since reading financial blogs. Like, the UK is almost as bankrupt as the US is, and it is only a matter of time before the spinning plates start falling. All this 'prosperity' Cameron boasts of is little more than using payday loans to buy 60'' tellies on a giant scale.

The Tories have just launched this scheme by which people will get access to their private pensions early, not as monthly payouts, but as huge lump sums. The devil is, as ever, in the detail.

1. Any monies removed will be heavily taxed.

2. Those funds represent just about the only genuine, real money left, and they have some bizarre idea that if the over-50s blow their investments on hot tubs, sports cars and cruises, it will somehow kickstart the stagnant economy.

3. Anyone daft enough to do it is also daft enough to be ripped off by sharks. Again.

What is also in the small print is a warning that if people throw away these funds before they retire, they needn't bother complaining when they do retire and all they have to live on is the State pension. They will be regarded as having deliberately impoverished themselves.

But it's all being presented as a huge step for Free Choice and all that, while every spiv in the financial sector rubs their hands with glee.

It's beyond me why people want to live in London, Sabot. I know there is a lot of money to be made, but the quality of life is abysmal for all but the rich.